Woolly Mammoth De-Extinction Timeline

The idea of bringing the woolly mammoth back to life has shifted from science fiction to a funded, scheduled corporate objective. Colossal Biosciences, a biotechnology company based in Dallas, has publicly set a deadline that is rapidly approaching. They aim to have their first mammoth-elephant hybrid calf born by late 2028. This is not a vague prediction; it is a timeline driven by massive venture capital funding and specific biological milestones.

The 2028 Target: Is It Realistic?

Ben Lamm, the CEO of Colossal Biosciences, and his co-founder, renowned geneticist George Church, have staked their reputations on the 2028 date. To understand if this is feasible, you have to look at the biology of the animal they are trying to create.

The creature will not be a pure clone of an ancient mammoth. Instead, it will be an Asian elephant with specific genetic edits to make it cold-resistant. The timeline relies on a few critical factors regarding elephant biology:

  • Gestation Period: Elephants have the longest pregnancy of any land mammal, lasting approximately 22 months.
  • The Math: To have a calf on the ground by late 2028, conception must occur by early 2027 at the absolute latest.
  • Current Status: As of 2024, the team is finalizing the genetic editing phase and moving toward the embryo transfer phase.

This tight window means Colossal has roughly two to three years to finalize the genome, create a viable embryo, and successfully implant it into a surrogate or an artificial womb.

The Science: How They Are Doing It

Colossal is not cloning a mammoth in the traditional sense, like Dolly the sheep. DNA found in frozen mammoth remains is often too fragmented to use for direct cloning. Instead, they are using CRISPR gene-editing technology.

The Asian Elephant Connection

The Asian elephant shares 99.6% of its DNA with the woolly mammoth. They are closer relatives than the Asian elephant is to the African elephant. This genetic similarity is the foundation of the entire project.

Scientists at Colossal are taking the genome of the Asian elephant and “cutting and pasting” specific genes recovered from mammoth specimens. They are focusing on roughly 50 to 60 distinct traits that define a mammoth. These include:

  1. Cold-Resistant Hemoglobin: Blood that can deliver oxygen efficiently in freezing temperatures.
  2. Subcutaneous Fat: Thick layers of fat for insulation.
  3. Hair Growth: The iconic shaggy coat.
  4. Small Ears: Reduced surface area to prevent frostbite and heat loss.

The resulting animal will be a “functional mammoth.” It will look like a mammoth and act like a mammoth, but its core genetic architecture will remain that of an Asian elephant.

Critical Breakthrough: The iPSC Milestone

In March 2024, Colossal announced a massive scientific victory that makes the 2028 timeline much more plausible. For the first time, their team successfully derived induced pluripotent stem cells (iPSCs) from Asian elephant cells.

This was historically difficult because elephants have complex genetics designed to fight cancer (specifically the TP53 gene pathway), which naturally kills off stem cells before they can be stabilized. Overcoming this hurdle allows the team to:

  • Test genetic edits in the lab without needing live animals.
  • Create sperm and egg cells from these stem cells in the future.
  • Generate the specific tissues (like hair and fat) in petri dishes to ensure the DNA edits are actually working.

Without this 2024 breakthrough, the 2028 deadline would have been impossible. With it, the timeline remains aggressive but scientifically viable.

The Ecological Purpose: Why Do This?

A common criticism is that this is a vanity project. However, Colossal and its supporters argue that this is an ecological restoration project. The goal is not just to make an animal for a zoo, but to repopulate the Arctic tundra.

Restoring the Mammoth Steppe

Thousands of years ago, the Arctic was not a mossy tundra but a grassy ecosystem known as the Mammoth Steppe. Mammoths acted as natural geo-engineers.

  • Compacting Snow: By trampling snow, mammoths allowed deep cold air to penetrate the ground, keeping the permafrost frozen.
  • Knocking Down Trees: They prevented dark forests from taking over, maintaining grasslands that reflect solar radiation (the albedo effect).

The theory is that reintroducing a cold-tolerant herbivore will help preserve the permafrost. If the permafrost melts, it releases massive amounts of methane and carbon dioxide. Therefore, Colossal positions the mammoth project as a tool to combat climate change.

Challenges Remaining Before 2028

Despite the funding and the stem cell success, significant hurdles remain between now and the birth of the calf.

The Surrogate Problem

To birth a mammoth, you need a womb. Using endangered Asian elephants as surrogates carries ethical risks. If the hybrid fetus is too large or the pregnancy fails, it could harm the mother.

Colossal is working on two parallel paths:

  1. Natural Surrogacy: Using Asian elephants.
  2. Artificial Wombs: The company is developing ex-utero gestation technology. This would allow them to grow the fetus outside of a living animal. While this technology is in its infancy for mammals of this size, it would solve the ethical dilemma of putting endangered elephants at risk.

Genetic Diversity

Creating one calf is a scientific feat, but it does not create a species. To establish a herd that can survive in the wild, Colossal needs genetic diversity. They cannot simply clone the same genome over and over. They must edit different lines of Asian elephant DNA to create a population large enough to avoid inbreeding.

Beyond the Mammoth: The Thylacine and Dodo

The technology developed for the mammoth timeline is being applied elsewhere. Colossal has launched similar projects for:

  • The Thylacine (Tasmanian Tiger): Partnering with labs in Melbourne, they aim to restore this marsupial using the fat-tailed dunnart as a genetic template.
  • The Dodo: Utilizing the genetic data of the Nicobar pigeon, the closest living relative of the dodo, to bring the bird back to Mauritius.

While the mammoth gets the headlines due to its size and the 2028 deadline, the Thylacine might actually be “de-extincted” first because the gestation period of marsupials is significantly shorter (often just weeks) compared to the 22 months required for an elephant.

Frequently Asked Questions

Will the mammoth born in 2028 be 100% mammoth? No. It will be an Asian elephant with specific mammoth traits edited into its DNA. It is a hybrid designed to function like a mammoth in cold climates.

Where will the mammoths live? Initially, they will likely be kept in controlled environments in zoos or sanctuaries. The long-term goal is to release them into rewilding sites, such as Pleistocene Park in Siberia, or similar locations in Alaska and Canada.

How much does this cost? Colossal Biosciences has raised over $225 million from investors including the CIA’s investment arm (In-Q-Tel), Peter Thiel, and Paris Hilton. The cost of the project runs into the hundreds of millions.

Is it dangerous to bring them back? The risk of the animal attacking humans is the same as with modern wild elephants. The biological risk (ancient viruses) is non-existent because they are not cloning frozen cells directly; they are building the DNA from scratch using modern elephant cells as a base.